Upset Audit

WTA Tour Toronto 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour Toronto 2026 in Canada, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Alexandrova E.def.Sabalenka A.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 166-7(3) 6-4 4-6

Pre-match WP: Alexandrova E. 8% · Sabalenka A. 92%

92

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Uchijima M.def.Bucsa C.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 1286-3 6-4

Pre-match WP: Uchijima M. 12% · Bucsa C. 88%

88

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Korneeva A.def.Jovic I.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 323-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Korneeva A. 15% · Jovic I. 85%

85

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Korneeva A.def.Navarro E.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 646-2 6-2

Pre-match WP: Korneeva A. 16% · Navarro E. 84%

84

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Fernandez L.def.Andreeva M.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 321-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Fernandez L. 17% · Andreeva M. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Mcnally C.def.Noskova L.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 646-7 1-6

Pre-match WP: Mcnally C. 23% · Noskova L. 77%

77

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Joint M.def.Cirstea S.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 644-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Joint M. 26% · Cirstea S. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

8

Samsonova L.def.Krejcikova B.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 646-1 7-5

Pre-match WP: Samsonova L. 27% · Krejcikova B. 73%

73

Umpiry
Surprise Score

9

Shnaider D.def.Pegula J.

WTA Tour Toronto 2026 — Round of 163-6 3-6

Pre-match WP: Shnaider D. 28% · Pegula J. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.