Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Toronto Round of 16

Toronto · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 3rd on
Ekaterina Alexandrova
RUS16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
#18WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLLWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-7 6-4 4-6
Alexandrova E.
Sabalenka A.
63641
Alexandrova E.
77462

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 16 at the Toronto hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 in favor of Alexandrova. Both players recorded 6 service breaks, 7 double faults, and hit 8 and 6 aces respectively.

Around the match

  • “That was definitely tricky. She played great. It was tough to face when you want to finish the match and go rest. And you know there was the break point. Of course, that's definitely not easy, and I'm happy that I managed to stay focused and managed to close this match in straight sets.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I was trying to step in and then I would step back and nothing really clicked. In the end I finally started moving a little bit better and finding my rhythm so I'm really happy at the end it really clicked.”

    Sabalenka A.Inquirer.net ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

5–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-17BerlinR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
2025-02-09DohaR32hardEkaterina Alexandrova3-6 6-3 7-6
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-2
2023-07-03WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-0
2022-06-06s HertogenboschFgrassEkaterina Alexandrova7-5 6-0
2021-10-18MoscowQFhardEkaterina Alexandrova6-3 6-4
2019-01-28St. PetersburgQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2018-12-31ShenzhenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Alexandrova E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
64%
51%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Alexandrova E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
100
58
Break points saved·Clear edge
93
71
Break points won·Even
99
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
54
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
22

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.92%
Alexandrova E.8%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Alexandrova E.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+402 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1800
9.7Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.3Overall Elo 1844
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Alexandrova E.
Freshness·Clear edge
79
63

Sabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw