Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Mirra Andreeva
RUS5
Mirra Andreeva
#6WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
$13MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
Leylah Fernandez
CAN30
Leylah Fernandez
#31WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$906kYTD
$8.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLLWL
Andreeva M.
1-6 4-6
Fernandez L.
Andreeva M.
140
Fernandez L.
662

Leylah Fernandez defeated Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-4 in the Round of 32 in Toronto. Fernandez had 0 aces and 1 double fault, while Andreeva had 4 aces and 2 double faults. Fernandez won 89% of her first-serve points and converted 80% of her break points, breaking Andreeva's serve 4 times, compared to Andreeva's 1 service break and 100% conversion of her break points.

Around the match

  • “I knew that I was the last Canadian standing. My dad specifically said that before I walked on court. I guess that kind of lit a little fire in me.”

    Fernandez L.Sportsnet.ca ↗

  • “If I play Leylah, for sure it's going to be tough. Starting with that she's playing at home, so obviously the crowd is going to support her.”

    Andreeva M.Sportsnet.ca ↗

  • “She's like, 'Hey, I've been looking at these matches, and we can do this.' So I feel like we're just excited to be playing together. I think the most important thing is that we get to have fun, get to share the court once again, and execute our game.”

    Fernandez L.Sportsnet.ca ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridQFclayMirra Andreeva7-6 6-3
2023-10-09Hong KongR16hardLeylah Fernandez3-6 6-1 6-3
2023-04-24MadridR128clayMirra Andreeva6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (46 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
92
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
83
77
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
92
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Andreeva M.83%
Fernandez L.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva M.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Fernandez L.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.6+209 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1785
8.4Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
1.6Overall Elo 1805
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
8.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
Freshness·Clear edge
90
78

Andreeva M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 13 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 93%

Draw