Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider — Toronto Round of 16
USA3
RUS15
Pegula J.
Diana Shnaider defeated Jessica Pegula 6-3, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Toronto tournament. Shnaider converted 57% of her break points, compared to 25% for Pegula, and won four service breaks to Pegula's one. Shnaider hit 2 aces and 3 double faults, while Pegula had 3 aces and 3 double faults.
Around the match
“At 3-0 it was so dark, I had a feeling that it was coming. I just wanted to stay super focused to try and build a lead as much as I could. It's always hard because you kind of start rushing sometimes.”
Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Key context
- Match story: Diana Shnaider dropped just 6 games past Jessica Pegula.
Head to head
4–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Washington | SF | hard | Jessica Pegula | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Charleston | QF | clay | Jessica Pegula | 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R16 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-08-05 | Toronto | SF | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-3 |
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About