Upset Audit
ATP Tour Montreal 2026: the biggest upsets
The most surprising results of ATP Tour Montreal 2026 in Canada, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.
1
Griekspoor T.def.
Zverev A.
Griekspoor T.def.Zverev A.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 647-6 2-6 4-6
Pre-match WP: Griekspoor T. 8% · Zverev A. 92%
92
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
2
Atmane T.def.
Draper J.
Atmane T.def.Draper J.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 1286-3 2-6 6-2
Pre-match WP: Atmane T. 15% · Draper J. 85%
85
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
3
Tirante T.def.
Fritz T.
Tirante T.def.Fritz T.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 647-5 6-3
Pre-match WP: Tirante T. 17% · Fritz T. 83%
83
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
4Van De Zandschulp B.def.
Medvedev D.
Van De Zandschulp B.def.Medvedev D.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 643-6 6-7(5)
Pre-match WP: Van De Zandschulp B. 22% · Medvedev D. 78%
78
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
5Navone M.def.
Vacherot V.
Navone M.def.Vacherot V.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 646-1 3-6 3-6
Pre-match WP: Navone M. 28% · Vacherot V. 72%
72
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
6Norrie C.def.
De Minaur A.
Norrie C.def.De Minaur A.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 325-7 7-6 6-1
Pre-match WP: Norrie C. 28% · De Minaur A. 72%
72
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
7Navone M.def.
Berrettini M.
Navone M.def.Berrettini M.ATP Tour Montreal 2026 — Round of 1283-6 7-6(5) 3-6
Pre-match WP: Navone M. 29% · Berrettini M. 71%
71
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.