Daniil Medvedev vs Botic Van De ZandschulpMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#7ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 4th on
#59ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
$690kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWLW
Medvedev D.
3-6 6-7
Van De Zandschulp B.
Medvedev D.
3650
Van De Zandschulp B.
6772

Botic Van De Zandschulp defeated Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 6-3, 7-6 on hard courts. Van De Zandschulp served zero aces and committed four double faults, while Medvedev had three aces and nine double faults. Van De Zandschulp converted 75% of his break points and secured six service breaks, compared to Medvedev's 50% conversion rate and four service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-02-13RotterdamR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 6-2
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR32hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 7-5
2022-01-17Australian OpenR32hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4 6-2
2021-08-30US OpenQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-0 4-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
46%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Even
7.9
7.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
69
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
93
Break points won·Dominant
98
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
82
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Medvedev D.78%
Van De Zandschulp B.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Medvedev D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+252 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1710
7.9Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1743
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
86
70

Medvedev D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw