Cameron Norrie vs Alex De MinaurMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#35ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#8ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Norrie C.
5-7 7-6 6-1
De Minaur A.
Norrie C.
5762
De Minaur A.
7611

Cameron Norrie defeated Alex De Minaur in the Round of 32 of the Montreal tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 5-7, 7-6, 6-1 in favor of Norrie. Norrie hit 7 aces and committed 3 double faults, while converting 70% of break points and securing 7 service breaks to De Minaur's 5.

Key context

Head to head

43
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAlex De Minaur7-6 2-6 6-2
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR32hardCameron Norrie6-4 6-4
2024-01-01United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-4 2-6 7-6
2023-08-07Canada MastersR64hardAlex De Minaur7-5 6-4
2023-01-02United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2022-12-29United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2022-04-18BarcelonaQFclayAlex De Minaur6-3 5-7 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
66%
69%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
94
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Clear edge
84
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
95
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Norrie C.28%
De Minaur A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1789
Surface ELO
6.8+146 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1961
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
71
72

Norrie C.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw