Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys — Brisbane Quarter-final
Brisbane · WTA · Quarter-final
BLR1#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026 ·
hard
USA5#24WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWWW
Sabalenka A.6-3 6-3
Keys M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Keys M.
330
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-3 6-3 in the Brisbane quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.
Key context
- Match story: Aryna Sabalenka dropped just 6 games past Madison Keys.
Head to head
5–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | F | hard | Madison Keys | 6-3 2-6 7-5 |
| 2024-09-25 | Beijing | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | US Open | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 0-6 7-6 7-6 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | QF | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021-06-14 | Berlin | R16 | grass | Madison Keys | 6-4 1-6 7-5 |
| 2018-08-13 | Cincinnati | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-4 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.4
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Slight edge
100
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
85
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Even
97
94
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
95
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Slight edge
66
74
Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast