Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka — Australian Open Final

Australian Open · WTA · Final
Madison Keys
USA19
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025 ·
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
Keys M.
6-3 2-6 7-5
Sabalenka A.
Keys M.
6272
Sabalenka A.
3651

Madison Keys defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 2-6 7-5 in the Australian Open final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending the title. Madison Keys narrowed the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Madison Keys closed it out in three sets, 6–3 2–6 7–5.

Head to head

1–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-03-05Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-0 6-1
2024-09-25BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-6 7-6
2023-07-03WimbledonQFgrassAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassMadison Keys6-4 1-6 7-5
2018-08-13CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Keys M.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (81 vs 114). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Keys M.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
100
Break points saved·Slight edge
85
93
Break points won·Slight edge
92
99
Deciding sets·Even
94
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Keys M.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Slight edge
66
59

Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: played today · 4 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Draw