S. Seghetti vs Lorenzo Rottoli — M25 Lesa Round of 16

M25 Lesa · ITF · Round of 16

ITA

S. Seghetti

#1500ATP

20 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWLLWWW

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Sets

Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 09:00

clay

ITA

Lorenzo Rottoli

#899ATP

24 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLLLWWW

Seghetti S.

Rottoli L.

S. Seghetti faces Lorenzo Rottoli in the M25 Lesa round of 16 on clay. Lorenzo Rottoli holds the paper edge — ranked #899. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC

Seghetti S.25%

Rottoli L.75%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rottoli L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Lorenzo Rottoli lost just 6 games in a 6–0 3–6 6–0 demolition of Alessandro Spadola.
Last match: S. Seghetti handed Gianmarco Ferrari a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.
Fatigue load: Lorenzo Rottoli carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Seghetti S.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Rottoli L.

4.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

1.92 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 4

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

2 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season

Seghetti S.Rottoli L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

55%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

64%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

49%

Service points won·Even

58%

59%

Return points won·Slight edge

31%

42%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Clear edge

1.0

3.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

4.0

3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (2 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Seghetti S.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Rottoli L.

Rottoli L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Seghetti S.

Serve advantage — Rottoli L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°CShowers

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 86%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.