Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — Wimbledon Quarter-final
JPN14
CZE10
Osaka N.
Karolina Muchova defeated Naomi Osaka in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, winning 7-6, 6-4 on the grass courts. Muchova served 7 aces to Osaka's 9, but committed fewer double faults, 2 to 4. Muchova won 78% of her first-serve points to Osaka's 67%, and converted 43% of her break points to Osaka's 67%, with Muchova securing 3 service breaks to Osaka's 2.
Around the match
“The grass is very specific. I think we did a great decision that I played two tournaments before Wimbledon so I get few more matches to feel better on the grass.”
Muchova K.WTA Tennis ↗“I'm nearing 30, I really got to enjoy the time that I have. Obviously tennis is very important to me, but I have a life outside of that.”
Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗“Oh, wait, wait. Can I practice here whenever I want? Is that one of the perks? Okay. Got to lock in.”
Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗“Oh my gosh, I was nervous. I was very nervous. As you said, she's unbelievable. We've played so many times... you can't lose that focus. You have to still keep going and play every point.”
Muchova K.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Key context
- Match story: Karolina Muchova edged Naomi Osaka in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Head to head
3–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Bad Homburg | F | grass | Karolina Muchova | 6-1 1-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | US Open | QF | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | R64 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 1-6 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R64 | hard | Karolina Muchova | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2021-04-29 | Madrid | R32 | clay | Karolina Muchova | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati | R32 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-7 6-4 6-2 |
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Muchova K. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadOsaka N.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About