Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — US Open Quarter-final
US Open · WTA · Quarter-final
JPN#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 25 August 2025 ·
hard
#7WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Osaka N.6-4 7-6
Muchova K.
Osaka N.
6772
Muchova K.
4630
Naomi Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova 6-4 7-6 in the US Open quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #7, leading the head-to-head 4–2, defending last year's semi-final. Naomi Osaka narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.
Key context
- Match story: Naomi Osaka edged Karolina Muchova in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Head to head
2–4| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Wimbledon | QF | grass | Karolina Muchova | 6-7 4-6 |
| 2026-06-27 | Bad Homburg | F | grass | Karolina Muchova | 6-1 1-0 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | R64 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 1-6 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R64 | hard | Karolina Muchova | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2021-04-29 | Madrid | R32 | clay | Karolina Muchova | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati | R32 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-7 6-4 6-2 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.9
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (76 vs 83). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Even
93
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
85
91
Break points won·Slight edge
98
88
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
86
99
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·
84
—
Osaka N.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast