Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
Naomi Osaka
JPN14
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Sabalenka A.
2-6 6-7
Osaka N.
Sabalenka A.
260
Osaka N.
672

Naomi Osaka advanced to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon with a 6-2, 7-6 victory over Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 16. Osaka served effectively, producing 8 aces and winning 87% of her first-serve points, while also converting two of four break-point chances. Sabalenka was unable to capitalize on any of her four break-point opportunities.

Around the match

  • “Going into this match, I lost to her three times in a row, so that really sucked. I wanted to turn it over, and I'm really glad I had the opportunity to do that.”

    Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “This court is so special. This is the first match I've won on this court, so it means a lot. It's been a long time since I've had so much fun on the court, and to do it here really means a lot.”

    Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “She overpowered me. I feel like my level was really low today, plus she was feeling her best. With every game we would play, I would feel worse and she would feel better.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Naomi Osaka closed it out in two sets, 6–2 7–6.

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-01Roland GarrosR16clayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-3
2026-04-21MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-7 6-3 6-2
2026-03-04Indian WellsR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2018-08-27US OpenR16hardNaomi Osaka6-3 2-6 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
93
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
85
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.86%
Osaka N.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Osaka N.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.1+246 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Grass Elo 1741
8.1Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1972
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.5Won 76% in United Kingdom (37)
Country comfort
5.8Won 64% in United Kingdom (22)
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Freshness·Dominant
59
90

Sabalenka A.: played today · 4 matches, 76 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw