Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka — Indian Wells Round of 16

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026 ·
hard
Naomi Osaka
JPN16
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Sabalenka A.
6-2 6-4
Osaka N.
Sabalenka A.
662
Osaka N.
240

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Naomi Osaka 6-2 6-4 in the Indian Wells round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending last year's final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

2–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-05WimbledonR16grassNaomi Osaka2-6 6-7
2026-06-01Roland GarrosR16clayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-3
2026-04-21MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-7 6-3 6-2
2018-08-27US OpenR16hardNaomi Osaka6-3 2-6 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
5.8
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
93
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
85
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Freshness·Clear edge
79
96

Sabalenka A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast

Draw