Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev — Indian Wells Masters Round of 64
Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025 ·
hard
RUS7#18ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWWL
Arnaldi M.6-4 7-5
Rublev A.
Arnaldi M.
672
Rublev A.
450
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-5 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #18, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 32. Matteo Arnaldi narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.
Key context
- Match story: Matteo Arnaldi edged Andrey Rublev in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Head to head
1–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | R128 | hard | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | SF | hard | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-6 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | R16 | hard | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 6-3 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.4
3.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Dominant
54
83
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Dominant
22
65
Deciding sets·Dominant
58
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
87
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Even
87
85
Arnaldi M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast