Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka — Toronto Round of 32
BEL20
JPN11
Mertens E.
Naomi Osaka defeated Elise Mertens in the Round of 32 of the Toronto tournament, winning 6-1, 6-2 on hard courts. Osaka hit 7 aces and 2 double faults, winning 85% of her first serves and converting 50% of break points. Mertens had 5 aces and 5 double faults, winning 61% of her first serves and failing to convert any break points.
Key context
- Match story: Naomi Osaka dropped just 3 games past Elise Mertens.
Head to head
3–5| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Bad Homburg | R16 | grass | Naomi Osaka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Toronto | R32 | hard | Elise Mertens | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-06-10 | s Hertogenbosch | R32 | grass | Naomi Osaka | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-03-06 | Indian Wells | R32 | hard | Elise Mertens | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami | R16 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati | SF | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-2 7-6 |
| 2019-09-16 | Osaka | SF | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2017-09-25 | Wuhan | R64 | hard | Elise Mertens | 6-4 1-6 6-4 |
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadMertens E.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About