Naomi Osaka vs Elise MertensBad Homburg Round of 16

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16
#13WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#22WTA
1894ELO
1750Grass ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWWL
Osaka N.
6-3 6-3
Mertens E.
Osaka N.
662
Mertens E.
330

Naomi Osaka defeated Elise Mertens 6-3, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Bad Homburg grass tournament. The match was part of the event's main draw. Osaka advanced with the win.

Key context

Head to head

53
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-07TorontoR32hardNaomi Osaka1-6 2-6
2024-08-05TorontoR32hardElise Mertens6-3 6-4
2024-06-10s HertogenboschR32grassNaomi Osaka6-2 6-4
2024-03-06Indian WellsR32hardElise Mertens7-5 6-4
2021-03-22MiamiR16hardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-3
2020-08-24CincinnatiSFhardNaomi Osaka6-2 7-6
2019-09-16OsakaSFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 6-1
2017-09-25WuhanR64hardElise Mertens6-4 1-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Even
58%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
69
Break points saved·Clear edge
85
65
Break points won·Even
98
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
63
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
86
70

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Osaka N.54%
Mertens E.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1553
Surface ELO
5.7+59 Grass Elo edge
6.1Overall Elo 1873
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1787
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
5.95 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
84
82

Osaka N.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw