Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno BustaValencia Round of 16

Valencia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 14 May 2026 ·
clay
#72ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWL
Baez S.
7-5 5-7 5-7
Carreno Busta P.
Baez S.
7551
Carreno Busta P.
5772

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Sebastian Baez 5-7 7-5 7-5 in the Valencia round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 2–1. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-17Winston-SalemR32hardSebastian Baez7-5 6-2
2022-10-24BaselR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-1
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta6-4 4-6 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
46
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
93
Break points won·Clear edge
77
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
14
Tiebreaks·Dominant
53
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
85

Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Draw