

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alex De Minaur 6-4 6-2 in the Madrid Masters round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #8, defending last year's round of 64. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 4–1.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | RR | hard | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 3-6 7-5 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | SF | clay | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 7-6 |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | R32 | grass | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | R128 | hard | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (87 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About