Madison Keys vs Elena Rybakina — Australian Open Round of 16
Australian Open · WTA · Round of 16
USA19#24WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025 ·
hard
KAZ6#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWL
Keys M.6-3 1-6 6-3
Rybakina E.
Keys M.
6162
Rybakina E.
3631
Madison Keys defeated Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3 in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 64. Madison Keys narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.
Key context
- Match story: Madison Keys closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 6–3.
Head to head
2–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-7 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami | R16 | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-10-03 | Ostrava | R32 | hard | Elena Rybakina | 5-7 6-3 6-3 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati | QF | hard | Madison Keys | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Madison Keys | 3-6 6-1 7-6 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
6.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.8
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (81 vs 119). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Slight edge
90
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
85
96
Break points won·Even
92
96
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
92
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Slight edge
66
55
Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 107 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast