

Andrey Rublev defeated Carlos Alcaraz 4-6 6-3 6-2 in the Madrid Masters quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–0, defending the title, but Andrey Rublev had been the form player, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay. Andrey Rublev claimed a first win over Carlos Alcaraz in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | SF | hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | QF | hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 4-6 7-5 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | RR | hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | RR | hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-2 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (164 vs 176). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Rublev A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About