
Andrey Rublev defeated Alex De Minaur 2-6 6-1 6-4 in the Monte Carlo Masters round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 64. Andrey Rublev narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | QF | hard | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 3-6 7-6 |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | QF | hard | Alex De Minaur | 7-6 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | R16 | hard | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-3 6-0 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | QF | hard | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 6-3 6-1 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | R32 | hard | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-11-05 | NextGen Finals | RR | hard | Alex De Minaur | 4-1 3-4 4-1 4-2 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | SF | hard | Alex De Minaur | 5-7 7-6 6-4 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Rublev A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About