Daniele Rapagnetta vs Manuel Mazza — M25 Lesa Round of 16

M25 Lesa · ITF · Round of 16
ITA
Daniele Rapagnetta
#740ATP
19 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWWWWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
clay
ITA
Manuel Mazza
#774ATP
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWLLWW
Rapagnetta D.
vs
Mazza M.

Daniele Rapagnetta faces Manuel Mazza in the M25 Lesa round of 16 on clay. Daniele Rapagnetta holds the paper edge — ranked #740. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Rapagnetta D.37%
Mazza M.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mazza M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Last match: Manuel Mazza dropped the opening set before beating S. D'Agostino 3–6 6–4 6–3.
  • Fatigue load: Daniele Rapagnetta carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rapagnetta D.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mazza M.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

12 vs 5 matches

Statistics

This season
Rapagnetta D.Mazza M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
54%
Aces / match·Even
2.4
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rapagnetta D.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Mazza M.

Mazza M.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Rapagnetta D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Rapagnetta D.Mazza M.
Freshness·
95
—

Rapagnetta D.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°CShowers
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw