Zizou Bergs vs Andrea PellegrinoQuebec City Round of 16

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#33ATP
1808ELO
1757Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$4.1MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWWWWW
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
#135ATP
1674ELO
1422Hard ELO
$320kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLWLWL
Bergs Z.
vs
Pellegrino A.

Zizou Bergs faces Andrea Pellegrino in the Quebec City round of 16 on hard. Zizou Bergs holds the paper edge — ranked #33, a roughly 340-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Bergs Z.83%
Pellegrino A.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Bergs Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Bergs Z. 1–4 · Pellegrino A. 0–4 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 42 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.2+335 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Hard Elo 1422
6.7Overall Elo 1808
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1674
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.51 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bergs Z.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Pellegrino A.

Pellegrino A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bergs Z.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
89
67
Break points won·Clear edge
11
35
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
82
Tiebreaks·Even
75
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
78

Bergs Z.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Pellegrino A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw