Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Cincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
Rafael Jodar
ESP12
Rafael Jodar
#11ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 10 · 3rd on
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI22
Alejandro Tabilo
#29ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLLLW
Jodar R.
6-2 6-1
Tabilo A.
Jodar R.
662
Tabilo A.
210

Rafael Jodar defeated Alejandro Tabilo in the Round of 32 of the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-2, 6-1 on hard courts. Jodar hit 10 aces and committed 3 double faults, while converting 45% of break points and winning 77% of first-serve points. He secured 5 service breaks in the match, compared to none for Tabilo.

Around the match

  • Staged a remarkable comeback from 5-1 down in the deciding set to defeat Shapovalov, continuing impressive form and demonstrating exceptional mental composure at age 19.

    Jodar R.Perfect Tennis ↗

  • Spanish teenager Jodar secured his first-ever Cincinnati Open main draw victory by mounting a remarkable comeback from 5-1 down in the third set against Denis Shapovalov, saving two match points.

    Jodar R.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-02WashingtonSFhardRafael Jodar6-7(6) 6-4 6-4
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128hardAlejandro Tabilo6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
6.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
37
Break points saved·Even
91
93
Break points won·Dominant
71
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Jodar R.71%
Tabilo A.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jodar R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Tabilo A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1750
7.2Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1819
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
83

Jodar R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw