Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Washington Semi-final

Washington · ATP · Semi-final
Rafael Jodar
ESP
Rafael Jodar
#11ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI
Alejandro Tabilo
#29ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLW
Jodar R.
6-7 6-4 6-4
Tabilo A.
Jodar R.
66662
Tabilo A.
78441

Rafael Jodar defeated Alejandro Tabilo in the semifinals of the Washington tournament, advancing with a 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 victory. Jodar hit 6 aces and 7 double faults, winning 81% of his first serves and converting 33% of break points. He broke Tabilo's serve twice, while Tabilo did not manage to break Jodar's serve.

Around the match

  • “It sounds very good. All the hard work I'm putting in the training weeks and the competition is paying off. I am always trying to give my best.”

    Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I didn't start very well with Lorenzo winning the first set 6-1. I had to reset mentally. I think I did a great job, especially in the beginning of the second set.”

    Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-17CincinnatiR32hardRafael Jodar6-2 6-1
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128hardAlejandro Tabilo6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
6.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
37
Break points saved·Even
91
93
Break points won·Dominant
71
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Jodar R.65%
Tabilo A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Jodar R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Tabilo A.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1750
7.2Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1819
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.06 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
83

Jodar R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 71%

Draw