Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic — Cincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · ATP · Q32
Luca Van Assche
FRA1
Luca Van Assche
#54ATP
1701ELO
1681Hard ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
Dusan Lajovic
SRB
Dusan Lajovic
#146ATP
1620ELO
1559Hard ELO
$208kYTD
$11MCAREER
36 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
Van Assche L.
7-6 2-6 6-3
Lajovic D.
Van Assche L.
77262
Lajovic D.
65631

Luca Van Assche defeated Dusan Lajovic in the Cincinnati qualifying round 2, winning 7-6, 2-6, 6-3. Van Assche served 6 aces and committed 8 double faults, while converting 75% of his break points. The match saw both players converting 75% of their break points and winning 74-75% of their first-serve points.

Key context

  • Match story: Luca Van Assche closed it out in three sets, 7–6 2–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-13UmagR32clayLuca Van Assche6-2 5-7 4-6
2025-08-19US OpenQ128hardLuca Van Assche6-3 6-1

Statistics

This season
Van Assche L.Lajovic D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Van Assche L.Lajovic D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
31
42
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
87
Break points won·Slight edge
7
18
Deciding sets·Slight edge
50
57
Tiebreaks·Even
64
66

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Van Assche L.65%
Lajovic D.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Van Assche L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Van Assche L.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Lajovic D.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1558
6.0Overall Elo 1701
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1620
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Van Assche L.Lajovic D.
Freshness·Dominant
78
52

Van Assche L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Lajovic D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 100 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
20°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 93%

Draw