Talia Gibson vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaToronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
#65WTA
1737ELO
1764Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLLLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#18WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWW
Gibson T.
7-5 1-6 3-6
Alexandrova E.
Gibson T.
7131
Alexandrova E.
5662

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Talia Gibson in the Round of 32 at the Toronto tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 in favor of Alexandrova. Alexandrova hit 7 aces and committed 4 double faults, while converting 56% of break points and winning 5 service breaks to Gibson's 2.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsR64hardTalia Gibson6-3 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
55%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.8
4.4
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
74
57
Break points saved·Clear edge
83
71
Break points won·Dominant
70
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
83
52
Tiebreaks·Dominant
90
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Gibson T.61%
Alexandrova E.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gibson T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1764
Surface ELO
5.4+35 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1737
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1844
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.08 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.33 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
85
68

Gibson T.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw