Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena FrechWashington Round of 16

Washington · WTA · Round of 16
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 3rd on
#41WTA
1725ELO
1700Hard ELO
$778kYTD
$4.9MCAREER
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLL
Pegula J.
3-6 6-3 6-0
Frech M.
Pegula J.
3662
Frech M.
6301

Jessica Pegula defeated Magdalena Frech in the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament, advancing with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-0 victory on hard courts. Pegula hit 9 aces to Frech's 6 and converted 42% of break points compared to Frech's 29%. Pegula won 72% of first-serve points to Frech's 60%, and she secured 5 service breaks to Frech's 2.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-05TorontoR64hardJessica Pegula3-6 6-3 6-2
2025-04-14StuttgartR16clayJessica Pegula6-1 6-1
2023-04-24MadridR64clayJessica Pegula7-6 6-3
2021-09-27Chicago 2R64hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Service points won·Even
62%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
18
Break points saved·Dominant
86
15
Break points won·Dominant
99
49
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
28
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
61

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Pegula J.88%
Frech M.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.5+358 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.5Hard Elo 1700
9.6Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
0.4Overall Elo 1725
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in Usa (31)
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
78
75

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Frech M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw