Elise Mertens vs Elena Rybakina — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Elise Mertens
BEL25
Elise Mertens
#22WTA
1894ELO
1750Grass ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
1884Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWW
Mertens E.
7-6 6-1
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.
762
Rybakina E.
610

Elise Mertens defeated Elena Rybakina in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 7-6, 6-1 victory on the grass courts. Mertens hit 4 aces and 10 double faults, while converting 40% of her break points and winning 78% of her first-serve points. She converted four service breaks to Rybakina's two.

Around the match

  • “I'm very pleased about the performance. Very happy that I could eventually win that first set. I really had the fire in me today. I'm happy that I could close it out.”

    Mertens E.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “Definitely one of my most memorable wins, especially against her here at Wimbledon. I really grew into the match. I soaked it all in today on Court 1.”

    Mertens E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Elise Mertens came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

1–7
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardElena Rybakina6-1 6-3
2025-08-07CincinnatiR32hardElena Rybakina4-6 6-3 7-5
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR32clayElena Rybakina6-4 6-2
2024-01-01BrisbaneR16hardElena Rybakina6-1 6-0
2023-03-20MiamiR16hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-3
2021-08-16CincinnatiR32hardElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2021-04-29MadridR32clayElise Mertens7-6 7-5
2020-01-06ShenzhenQFhardElena Rybakina6-4 4-6 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Mertens E.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
59%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
6.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mertens E.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
98
Break points saved·Dominant
65
96
Break points won·Even
97
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
71
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Mertens E.17%
Rybakina E.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mertens E.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1748
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Grass Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 2122
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.6Won 59% in United Kingdom (37)
Country comfort
6.9Won 81% in United Kingdom (32)
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mertens E.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Dominant
85
56

Mertens E.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw