Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT
Jelena Ostapenko
#30WTA
1855ELO
1770Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-4
Ostapenko J.
Sabalenka A.
662
Ostapenko J.
440

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jelena Ostapenko 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. Sabalenka hit 9 aces to Ostapenko's 4 and committed 2 double faults to Ostapenko's 4. Sabalenka won 4 service breaks to Ostapenko's 2.

Around the match

  • “Incredible level in the second set from her. She really tested me today, and I'm really happy to pass the test. She really stepped in, she played super aggressive.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “Grass is one of my favorite surfaces. I like interesting matches. I think tennis is a big challenge in general, I don't think those other things are extra challenges. I just take it as another match.”

    Ostapenko J.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I'd say in these kind of matches there is a few key moments of the match. I feel like it's all mental part of the game. I'm really glad that mentally I was super strong and super focused today.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Aryna Sabalenka edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartFclayJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-1
2024-05-06RomeQFclayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2023-02-20DubaiR16hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-1
2019-09-09ZhengzhouR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
54%
42%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.5
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
5.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
100
68
Break points saved·Dominant
93
25
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.94%
Ostapenko J.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Ostapenko J.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+222 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Grass Elo 1765
9.6Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.4Overall Elo 1852
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.5Won 75% in United Kingdom (36)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in United Kingdom (63)
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
Freshness·Dominant
66
94

Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 28%

Draw