Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy PaulWimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
#69ATP
1798ELO
1700Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
3 — 1
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 3rd on
#24ATP
1949ELO
1801Grass ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLLWW
Hurkacz H.
4-6 7-6 7-5 6-2
Paul T.
Hurkacz H.
47763
Paul T.
66521

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Tommy Paul in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Hurkacz. He hit 20 aces and committed 1 double fault, while converting 43% of break points and securing 3 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-15CincinnatiR64hardTommy Paul6-4 6-7 6-3
2025-05-07Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-6 6-3
2024-05-06Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-5 3-6 6-3
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersR32hardTommy Paul4-6 6-2 6-4
2021-11-01Paris MastersR32hardHubert Hurkacz7-5 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
79%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
56%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
14.4
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
67
90
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
16
88
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Hurkacz H.17%
Paul T.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1700
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Grass Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1798
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1948
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in United Kingdom (25)
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in United Kingdom (34)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
64
75

Hurkacz H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Paul T.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw