Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka — Australian Open Final
Australian Open · WTA · Final
KAZ5#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026 ·
hard
BLR1#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW
Rybakina E.6-4 4-6 6-4
Sabalenka A.
Rybakina E.
6462
Sabalenka A.
4641
Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 4-6 6-4 in the Australian Open final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 11–8, defending last year's final. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 11–9.
Key context
- Match story: Elena Rybakina edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 4–6 6–4.
Head to head
8–11| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Miami | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6 |
| 2025-11-08 | WTA Finals | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-6(0) |
| 2025-11-01 | Riyadh Finals | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Berlin | QF | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6 3-6 7-6 |
| 2024-11-06 | WTA Finals | RR | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-11-04 | Riyadh Finals | RR | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid | SF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 7-5 7-6 |
| 2024-01-01 | Brisbane | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2023-11-03 | WTA Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-10-02 | Beijing | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-6 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2021-01-06 | Abu Dhabi | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 4-6 6-3 |
| 2019-09-23 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 1-6 6-1 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Even
98
100
Break points saved·Even
96
93
Break points won·Even
96
99
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
100
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Slight edge
56
66
Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast