Karolina Muchova vs Elena Rybakina — Brisbane Quarter-final
Brisbane · WTA · Quarter-final
CZE11#7WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026 ·
hard
KAZ3#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWLW
Muchova K.6-2 2-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Muchova K.
6262
Rybakina E.
2641
Karolina Muchova defeated Elena Rybakina 6-2 2-6 6-4 in the Brisbane quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Karolina Muchova narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.
Key context
- Match story: Karolina Muchova closed it out in three sets, 6–2 2–6 6–4.
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Stuttgart | F | clay | Elena Rybakina | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-6 2-6 6-4 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | R128 | hard | Karolina Muchova | 6-4 6-4 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.4
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Slight edge
92
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
96
Break points won·Slight edge
88
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
92
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·
—
56
Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast