

Elina Svitolina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the Strasbourg semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–0, defending last year's semi-final. Elina Svitolina claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in seven meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 6–1.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-04-22 | Madrid | SF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome | R16 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-1 7-6 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | QF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-09-24 | Wuhan | R32 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 2-6 6-1 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Svitolina E.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: played today · 4 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About