Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Michael Geerts

Roehampton 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

JPN8

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

#315ATP

1503ELO

1480Hard ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWWWWLL

—

Sets

Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 13:00

hard

BEL

Michael Geerts

#348ATP

1400ELO

1383Hard ELO

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWLWWWLLL

Dylan Hara Friend J.

Geerts M.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend faces Michael Geerts in the Roehampton 2 round of 32 on hard. Jay Dylan Hara Friend holds the paper edge — ranked #315, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Dylan Hara Friend J.59%

Geerts M.41%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dylan Hara Friend J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Jay Dylan Hara Friend 0 games in 14 days, Michael Geerts 86.
Surface form: Jay Dylan Hara Friend 3 of 5, Michael Geerts 2 of 5 on hard recently — Jay Dylan Hara Friend the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Dylan Hara Friend J.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Geerts M.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.2+97 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.8Hard Elo 1383

6.3Overall Elo 1503

ELO gap

3.7Overall Elo 1400

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.06 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.14 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Dylan Hara Friend J.Geerts M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

66%

57%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

68%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

53%

Service points won·Even

62%

65%

Return points won·Even

39%

35%

Break points saved·Even

59%

62%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.6

5.3

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.5

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Dylan Hara Friend J.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Geerts M.

Geerts M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Dylan Hara Friend J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Dylan Hara Friend J.Geerts M.

Freshness·Dominant

100

Dylan Hara Friend J.: 19 days rest · Geerts M.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 86 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

24°CClear

Wind 18 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Michael Geerts — Roehampton 2 Round of 32