Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Oliver TarvetRoehampton 2 Round of 32

Roehampton 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#281ATP
1412ELO
1270Hard ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 3rd on
#380ATP
1490ELO
1460Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
vs
Tarvet O.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Oliver Tarvet in the Roehampton 2 round of 32 on hard. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the paper favourite — ranked #281 — but Oliver Tarvet rides a 5-match win streak.

Around the match

  • I maybe didn't expect it going into this week. Doing it five matches in a row, beating quality players, isn't easy. So it's special, especially with my family here.

    Tarvet O.LTA

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Pucinelli De Almeida M.26%
Tarvet O.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tarvet O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1270
Surface ELO
7.4+190 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1490
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
2.22 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.68 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
63%
80%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
58%
Service points won·Clear edge
58%
71%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
55%
78%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.2
9.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

wins 61% of points on serve vs Tarvet O.

Tarvet O.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Pucinelli De Almeida M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
74
61

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Tarvet O.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 119 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on Court 3 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 2Loffhagen G. v Gray A.
  2. 3Pucinelli De Almeida M. v Tarvet O.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw