Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe — Cincinnati Semi-final

Cincinnati · ATP · Semi-final
Brandon Nakashima
USA27
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 23 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 4th on
Frances Tiafoe
USA17
Frances Tiafoe
#23ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLWW
Nakashima B.
5-7 3-6
Tiafoe F.
Nakashima B.
530
Tiafoe F.
762

Frances Tiafoe defeated Brandon Nakashima in the semifinals of the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-5, 6-3 on hard courts. Tiafoe hit 7 aces and 5 double faults, while Nakashima had 9 aces and 2 double faults. Tiafoe converted 50% of break points and won 78% of first-serve points, compared to Nakashima's 22% break point conversion and 62% first-serve win percentage.

Around the match

  • “I've had a pretty good last few weeks; I've spent hours and hours on the court - I'm proud of myself. I now have the opportunity to win more matches.”

    Nakashima B.Flashscore.com ↗

  • “Happy where I've been mentally more than anything. This has been a great week.”

    Tiafoe F.FOX Sports ↗

  • “He's the hottest guy on tour right now.”

    Tiafoe F.Cincinnati Enquirer ↗

  • “My coach and I, we've been talking about it a lot. I'm just really happy it's been paying off.”

    Nakashima B.Cincinnati Open ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23AcapulcoSFhardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6 6-4
2025-03-31HoustonSFclayFrances Tiafoe6-4 7-6
2024-09-25TokyoR32hardBrandon Nakashima7-5 6-3
2022-07-25AtlantaQFhardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-2
2022-03-21Miami MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6 6-4
2021-03-15AcapulcoR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-7 7-6
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Nakashima B.Tiafoe F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
69%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.7
7.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
0.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nakashima B.Tiafoe F.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
75
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
3
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
55
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Nakashima B.46%
Tiafoe F.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nakashima B.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tiafoe F.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1918
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nakashima B.Tiafoe F.
Freshness·Slight edge
44
55

Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 137 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 114 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw