Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe — Cincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · ATP · Quarter-final
Lorenzo Musetti
ITA10
Lorenzo Musetti
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 22 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 4th on
Frances Tiafoe
USA17
Frances Tiafoe
#23ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Musetti L.
6-7 5-7
Tiafoe F.
Musetti L.
6250
Tiafoe F.
7772

Frances Tiafoe defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-6, 7-5 on hard courts. Tiafoe and Musetti hit an equal number of aces, four each, but Tiafoe committed fewer double faults, two to Musetti's four. Tiafoe won the match with a higher first-serve win percentage and took one more service break than Musetti.

Around the match

  • Musetti has found stability after an injury-plagued season and is regaining form.

    Musetti L.Tennishead ↗

  • Tiafoe has recovered remarkably well from right-hand cyst removal surgery performed less than two weeks ago and reached the quarterfinals.

    Tiafoe F.The Grandstand ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

3–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayLorenzo Musetti6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-3 6-2
2023-06-12StuttgartQFgrassFrances Tiafoe6-7 7-6 6-2
2023-05-08Rome MastersR32clayLorenzo Musetti5-7 6-4 6-3
2023-01-02United CupFhardFrances Tiafoe6-2 0-0
2021-03-15AcapulcoR16hardLorenzo Musetti2-6 6-3 7-6
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Musetti L.Tiafoe F.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Even
67%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Musetti L.Tiafoe F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
89
75
Break points saved·Even
94
97
Break points won·Dominant
81
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Musetti L.55%
Tiafoe F.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Musetti L.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tiafoe F.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1804
Surface ELO
5.7+58 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1918
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Musetti L.Tiafoe F.
Freshness·Slight edge
66
58

Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 79 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw