Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz — Cancun 2 Quarter-final

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
POR
Henrique Rocha
#126ATP
1676ELO
1574Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$883kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLLLLW
—
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
Hubert Hurkacz
POL3
Hubert Hurkacz
#69ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWWWL
Rocha H.
vs
Hurkacz H.

Henrique Rocha faces Hubert Hurkacz in the Cancun 2 quarter-final on hard. Hubert Hurkacz holds the paper edge — ranked #69, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Rocha H.30%
Hurkacz H.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Hurkacz H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Rocha H. 1–1 · Hurkacz H. 1–1 · small sample
Both won · same surface, 8 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rocha H.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Hurkacz H.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1574
Surface ELO
6.9+152 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1676
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.53 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
57%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
14.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rocha H.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Hurkacz H.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rocha H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
67
Break points saved·Dominant
67
99
Break points won·Slight edge
25
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
57
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
Freshness·Even
73
75

Rocha H.: played today · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw