Roman Safiullin vs Stan Wawrinka — Cancun 2 Round of 16
RUS7
Safiullin R.
Roman Safiullin faces Stan Wawrinka in the Cancun 2 round of 16 on hard. Roman Safiullin holds the paper edge — ranked #103, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Safiullin R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Stan Wawrinka has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 53 vs Roman Safiullin's 20).
- Last match: Stan Wawrinka won all two sets in tiebreaks against Dalibor Svrcina.
- Head-to-head: Roman Safiullin leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Beijing 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSafiullin R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Wawrinka S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | R32 | hard | Roman Safiullin | 6-3 6-4 |