Jesper De Jong vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Quebec City Round of 16

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Jesper De Jong
NED8
Jesper De Jong
#106ATP
1711ELO
1607Hard ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLWLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
NOR
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#155ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLLWWL
De Jong J.
vs
Budkov Kjaer N.

Jesper De Jong faces Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Quebec City round of 16 on hard. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #106.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
De Jong J.51%
Budkov Kjaer N.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · De Jong J. 0–4 · Budkov Kjaer N. 1–2 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Budkov Kjaer N.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+9 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1598
6.1Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1620
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.32 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Budkov Kjaer N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Jong J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Budkov Kjaer N.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Budkov Kjaer N.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
67
Break points saved·Even
80
78
Break points won·Clear edge
19
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Budkov Kjaer N.
Freshness·Slight edge
82
77

De Jong J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Budkov Kjaer N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw