Lorenzo Giustino vs Dimitar Kuzmanov — Sion Quarter-final

Sion · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Lorenzo Giustino
ITA1
Lorenzo Giustino
#195ATP
1420ELO
1355Clay ELO
$101kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 2nd on
Dimitar Kuzmanov
BUL
Dimitar Kuzmanov
#387ATP
1431ELO
1394Clay ELO
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWWLW
Giustino L.
vs
Kuzmanov D.

Lorenzo Giustino faces Dimitar Kuzmanov in the Sion quarter-final on clay. Lorenzo Giustino is the paper favourite — ranked #195 — but Dimitar Kuzmanov arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Lorenzo Giustino's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Giustino L.45%
Kuzmanov D.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Giustino L.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kuzmanov D.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1355
Surface ELO
5.5+39 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1420
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1431
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.85 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
Giustino L.Kuzmanov D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
71%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Giustino L.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Kuzmanov D.

Kuzmanov D.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Giustino L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Giustino L.Kuzmanov D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
0
16
Break points saved·Dominant
32
61
Break points won·Clear edge
9
31
Deciding sets·Even
10
12
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
10
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Giustino L.Kuzmanov D.
Freshness·Slight edge
82
88

Giustino L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Kuzmanov D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CThunderstorm
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw