Alexei Popyrin vs Hugo Gaston — Quebec City Round of 16
FRA4
Popyrin A.
Alexei Popyrin faces Hugo Gaston in the Quebec City round of 16 on hard. Hugo Gaston holds the paper edge — ranked #97, leading the head-to-head 1–0.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Popyrin A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alexei Popyrin comes in with 1 days of rest and 81 games in 14d, vs Hugo Gaston's 7 and 27.
- Serve & return: Alexei Popyrin brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 43), Hugo Gaston the stronger return game (Return Rating 72).
- Last match: Alexei Popyrin edged Francesco Maestrelli in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPopyrin A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | R128 | grass | Hugo Gaston | 6-2 4-6 0-6 7-6 6-3 |