Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti — Cincinnati Round of 16
PORQ
ITA10
Faria J.
Jaime Faria faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is the paper favourite — ranked #15, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage — but Jaime Faria rides a 5-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Musetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jaime Faria comes in with 1 days of rest and 132 games in 14d, vs Lorenzo Musetti's 1 and 74.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Lorenzo Musetti has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 89 vs 54).
- Last match: Jaime Faria dropped the opening set before beating Adam Walton 4–6 6–4 7–6.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFaria J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.