Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Eva Marie Desvignes

W15 Tianjin 3 · ITF · Round of 16

JPN8

Natsuki Yoshimoto

#581WTA

23 yrs

Last 10

WLLLWWWLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 14:30

hard

FRA

Eva Marie Desvignes

#939WTA

18 yrs

Last 10

WWLLWWWLLL

Yoshimoto N.

Marie Desvignes E.

Natsuki Yoshimoto faces Eva Marie Desvignes in the W15 Tianjin 3 round of 16 on hard. Natsuki Yoshimoto holds the paper edge — ranked #581. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC

Yoshimoto N.83%

Marie Desvignes E.17%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Yoshimoto N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Eva Marie Desvignes dropped just 3 games past Yanan Hou.
Last match: Natsuki Yoshimoto handed Eunyeong Park a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.
Fatigue load: Eva Marie Desvignes carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Yoshimoto N.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Marie Desvignes E.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.26 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.14 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

15 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season

Yoshimoto N.Marie Desvignes E.

1st serve in·Even

66%

62%

1st serve points won·Even

59%

56%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

45%

Service points won·Even

55%

52%

Return points won·Even

47%

45%

Break points saved·Even

50%

51%

Aces / match·Slight edge

0.5

1.6

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.8

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Yoshimoto N.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Marie Desvignes E.

Marie Desvignes E.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Yoshimoto N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

29°CThunderstorm

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Eva Marie Desvignes — W15 Tianjin 3 Round of 16