Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16

USA17

Frances Tiafoe

#23ATP

1918ELO

1861Hard ELO

$1.9MYTD

$18MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLWWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 20:30

hard

CAN2

Felix Auger Aliassime

#4ATP

1958ELO

1932Hard ELO

$2.1MYTD

$23MCAREER

26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWWLWW

Tiafoe F.

Auger Aliassime F.

Frances Tiafoe faces Felix Auger Aliassime in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

Back injury that forced Montreal withdrawal appears to be healing well; advanced comfortably to Cincinnati round of 16.
Auger Aliassime F.Sportsnet.ca ↗
After withdrawing from Montreal due to a back injury, Auger-Aliassime has returned in strong form with convincing victories over top opponents.
Auger Aliassime F.The Grandstand ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC

Tiafoe F.42%

Auger Aliassime F.58%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Auger Aliassime F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Frances Tiafoe comes in with 0 days of rest and 59 games in 14d, vs Felix Auger Aliassime's 1 and 40.
Head-to-head: Felix Auger Aliassime leads the head-to-head 3–1, 0–2 on hard. Last met at Halle 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

19 common opponents · Tiafoe F. 15–12 · Auger Aliassime F. 19–11

Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tiafoe F.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Auger Aliassime F.

6.9

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.1Hard Elo 1861

Surface ELO

5.9+71 Hard Elo edge

4.5Overall Elo 1918

ELO gap

5.5Overall Elo 1958

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

6.46 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.47 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

43 vs 43 matches

Statistics

This season

Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.

1st serve in·Slight edge

61%

68%

1st serve points won·Even

75%

79%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

52%

Service points won·Even

67%

70%

Return points won·Even

35%

36%

Break points saved·Even

68%

67%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.0

10.8

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.1

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tiafoe F.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Auger Aliassime F.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.

Freshness·Clear edge

Tiafoe F.: played today · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Auger Aliassime F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CMainly clear

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 78%

Head to head

1–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-06-19	Halle	QF	grass	Frances Tiafoe	3-6 6-3
2022-10-31	Paris Masters	QF	hard	Felix Auger Aliassime	6-1 6-4
2022-04-18	Barcelona	R16	clay	Felix Auger Aliassime	7-5 6-4
2021-08-30	US Open	R16	hard	Felix Auger Aliassime	4-6 6-2 7-6 6-4

View full head-to-head →

Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Cincinnati Round of 16

Around the match

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard