Darya Astakhova vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric — W75 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Round of 16
Astakhova D.
Darya Astakhova faces Lucija Ciric Bagaric in the W75 Kursumlijska Banja 3 round of 16 on clay. Darya Astakhova is the paper favourite — ranked #231, a roughly 250-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucija Ciric Bagaric arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Darya Astakhova's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Astakhova D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Lucija Ciric Bagaric rising, Darya Astakhova cooling.
- Last match: Darya Astakhova dropped just 4 games past Lea Nilsson.
- Last match: Lucija Ciric Bagaric handed Lea Boskovic a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–4 win.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.