Rei Sakamoto vs Luca Van Assche — Quebec City Round of 16
JPN
FRA2
Sakamoto R.
Rei Sakamoto faces Luca Van Assche in the Quebec City round of 16 on hard. Luca Van Assche is the paper favourite — ranked #54, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Rei Sakamoto arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Luca Van Assche's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Rei Sakamoto 149 games in 14 days, Luca Van Assche 67.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Rei Sakamoto grades 37 on serve, Luca Van Assche 88 on return.
- Last match: Rei Sakamoto dropped just 5 games past Jurij Rodionov.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.