Learner Tien vs Frances TiafoeCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
#12ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 5th on
#23ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWW
Tien L.
4-6 6-4 4-6
Tiafoe F.
Tien L.
4641
Tiafoe F.
6462

Frances Tiafoe defeated Learner Tien in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Tiafoe had 9 aces and 6 double faults, while converting 80% of break points and winning 78% of first-serve points. Tien had 8 aces, 3 double faults, 75% break-point conversion and 79% first-serve win percentage; Tiafoe secured 4 service breaks to Tien's 3.

Around the match

  • Tiafoe seeking redemption at Cincinnati after losing 2024 final to Sinner and retiring last year with back injury.

  • Tiafoe recovered from a recent retirement in Montreal and has regained confidence with a comfortable straight-sets victory over Lorenzo Sonego.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Frances Tiafoe edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16Delray BeachQFhardLearner Tien7-6 3-6 7-5
2023-08-28US OpenR128hardFrances Tiafoe6-2 7-5 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.7
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
97
Break points won·Dominant
88
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Even
100
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Tien L.57%
Tiafoe F.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+43 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1861
5.3Overall Elo 1941
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1918
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.7Won 79% in Usa (75)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
56
65

Tien L.: played today · 3 matches, 69 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: played today · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw